[CS14-15] Calculation method of fragility curve of nuclear power plant structure using Bayesian estimation
Keywords:fragility curve, bayesian estimation, nuclear power plant, seismic pra, water intake structure, earthquake resistant
In this study, we examined the fragility curve calculation method using Bayesian estimation that can reduce the number of earthquake response analysis required for fragility curve calculation.
In previous researches, the prior distribution was evaluated from experimental and observational data, but in this study it was evaluated by IDA(Incremental Dynamic Analysis).
As a result of applying this method to the Water intake structure of a nuclear power plant, the annual damage probability by this method becomes comparable with the method of Atomic Society of Japan earthquake PRA standard. In addition, the number of analyzes could be reduced to about one third.
In previous researches, the prior distribution was evaluated from experimental and observational data, but in this study it was evaluated by IDA(Incremental Dynamic Analysis).
As a result of applying this method to the Water intake structure of a nuclear power plant, the annual damage probability by this method becomes comparable with the method of Atomic Society of Japan earthquake PRA standard. In addition, the number of analyzes could be reduced to about one third.
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