気候変動と水循環

[II-42] ESTIMATION OF FUTURE PEAK FLOOD BASED ON MASSIVE ENSEMBLE CLIMATE PROJECTIONS USING DISTRIBUTED RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODEL

*植村 郁彦¹、舛屋 繁和¹、吉田 隆年¹、大村 宣明¹、山本 太郎²、岡部 博一³、星野 剛⁴、山田 朋人⁴、中津川 誠⁵ (1. 株式会社ドーコン、2. 一般財団法人　北海道河川財団、3. 国土交通省北海道開発局、4. 北海道大学、5. 室蘭工業大学)

Keywords:climate change, massive ensemble climate projection data, d4PDF, distributed rainfall-runoff model, parameterization, maximum annual flood discharge

In this study, in order to help discuss future adaptation measures for natural disasters, proposed a method for improving the accuracy of run-off prediction by parameter setting according to each rainfall events, applicable to various rainfall patterns such as massive ensemble climate projection dataset. By estimation the peak flood in the present climate experiment by this method, the reproduction accuracy of the frequency distribution of the maximum annual flood discharge of the observation value has been improved.