気候変動と水循環

[II-45] Prediction of Rainfall Variations after global warming in the Kyushu Island based on Large Ensemble Experiments

*於久 達哉¹、田井 明¹、杉原 裕司¹、松永 信博¹、小松 利光¹、橋本 彰博²、押川 英夫³ (1. 九州大学、2. 福岡大学、3. 佐賀大学)

Keywords:d4PDF, global warming, model bias, prediction of future rainfall variations

According to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, the intensity and frequency of concentrated torrential rain due to global warming will increase. Since the increase in torrential rain is most likely to have a big influence on human society, high accuracy prediction is necessary. However, in the previous prediction database, there are not enough the ensemble number of the prediction for probabilistic evaluation of the uncertainty associated with extreme weather. Therefore, in this study, I used a large scale ensemble climate prediction database d4PDF composed of numerous ensemble experiment data.