降水・大気

[II-46] Proposal of a risk assessment method for raifall disaster considering temporally random variation of rainfalls

〇Hiroaki Kanekiyo¹, Taisuke Ishigaki¹, Kouhei Kitano¹, Kaito Kusano¹ (1.Kansai University)

Keywords:rainfall disaster, rainfall risk, random phenomena, probabilistic model

First, a stochastic model describing the random variation of rainfall intensity is constructed based on a stationary Gaussian process, from which samples of hyetograph are generated through computer simulations. Next, by generating inflow hydrographs by the use of samples of hyetograph through underground flood analysis, a probability distribution of peak inflow is estimated. Finally, the risk of rainfall disaster is quantitatively discussed by estimating the probability of rainfall disaster from these results.