温暖化・リスク

[II-51] Prediction of river discharge at the upstream area of the Chikugo River using database for Policy Decision making for Future climate change

〇Tatsuya Oku¹, Takaaki Nabeshima¹, Akira Tai¹ (1.Kyushu-university)

Keywords:d4PDF, global warming, Chikugo River, prediction of river discharge

According to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, the intensity and frequency of concentrated torrential rain due to global warming will increase. Therefore, it is predicted that flood disasters will occur frequently in the future. In this study, I used d4PDF that is a large-scale ensemble experiment database created by conducting a large number of ensemble experiments so that we can discuss sufficiently about the extreme weather at the base of the probability density distribution. By analyzing d4PDF,I predicted discharge changes in the future in the upper Chikugo River basin.