[SS1A-05] Risk quantification for infrastructure maintenance considering the uncertainty of maintenance policy
Keywords:Tailrisk quantification, maintenance, time consistency, dynamic evaluation
Risk management of infrastructure maintenance to prevent severe accidents requires the consideration of tail risk. Indices such as conditional value at risk (CVaR) have been used to quantify risk considering the probability of rare events. However, they are not time-inconsistent. A strategy that was initially regarded as optimal in terms of these risk indices may turn out not to be optimal in the dynamic process of maintenance. To prevent inconsistency, this study discusses risk quantification that can consider the dynamic characteristics of infrastructure maintenance by exploiting an iterated risk measure as a framework for conventional indices such as CVaR.