2:15 PM - 2:30 PM
[2C12-20-06] Real time tsunami risk evaluation of the Cascadian Subduction Zone using POD and Bayesian update
Keywords:Fake earthquake scenarios, Proper Orthogonal Decomposition, Cascadia Subduction Zone, Bayesian update
In this study, we present a tsunami prediction method using Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD) and Bayesian update. The study takes place in Westport. Based on fake earthquake scenarios, 1771 tsunami simulations are obtained, and corresponding wave histories are collected at 76 fictive gauges. The main characteristics of each wave history are extracted prior to the forecast process and stored in a database. When a tsunami occurs, wave heights are measured in real-time and their characteristics are compared with those of the database. The closest scenario from the database to the occurring event is chosen as the forecast by application of Bayesian update.