数値解析の検証と妥当性確認（V&V）、不確かさ評価

[2C12-20-06] Real time tsunami risk evaluation of the Cascadian Subduction Zone using POD and Bayesian update

*Louise Ayako Hirao Vermare¹, Saneiki Fujita¹, Reika Nomura¹, Yu Otake¹, Shyuji Moriguchi¹, Kenjiro Terada¹, Randall LeVeque² (1. Tohoku University, 2. University of Washington)

Keywords:Fake earthquake scenarios, Proper Orthogonal Decomposition, Cascadia Subduction Zone, Bayesian update

In this study, we present a tsunami prediction method using Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD) and Bayesian update. The study takes place in Westport. Based on fake earthquake scenarios, 1771 tsunami simulations are obtained, and corresponding wave histories are collected at 76 fictive gauges. The main characteristics of each wave history are extracted prior to the forecast process and stored in a database. When a tsunami occurs, wave heights are measured in real-time and their characteristics are compared with those of the database. The closest scenario from the database to the occurring event is chosen as the forecast by application of Bayesian update.