資源・環境政策・経済、資源開発

[3406] Indonesian Coal Production Forecasting Method Using Logistic Curves: Evaluation Based on the Type of Coal Production License

資源・環境政策・経済

^〇Fadhila Rosyid¹, 安達毅¹ (1.秋田大学)

司会: 村上 進亮 (東大)

Keywords:coal production, logistic curve, production license, Indonesia

One of the critics on Hubbert theory application using logistic curve in forecasting production of non-renewable resources is its inability to accommodate a producer’s decision in determining the level of production based on economic considerations. In this paper, such drawback will be resolved by dividing the case study of Indonesian coal production based on the types of coal production license. There are two types of coal production license in Indonesia; coal contract of work and coal mining permit. These will distinguish the area of concessions, the amount of mineable reserves, the production duration, and the level of taxes.