資源と社会

[1308] Risk Assessment of Mineral Raw Material Supply by Indicators

^○李文華¹, 安達毅¹ (1.秋田大学)

司会:別所昌彦(秋田大学)

Keywords:Mineral Depletion, By-product rate, Price Volatility, Recycling Input Ratio, Concentration Ratio

Rapid rising of developing countries like China and India together with high development prospect of Africa continent in the coming decades will consume many mineral raw materials. The objective of this study is metal supply risk assessment for silver, gold, platinum, palladium, copper, lead, nickel, zinc, and tin. Five risk indicators are developed including depletion time, by product rate, price volatility, recycling input ratio, and country concentration rate. Through aggregating the five dimensions of risk between zero and five with different risk level, comprehensive evaluation is achieved. The result shows that supply risk for all nine metals tend to increase from moderate to risky, especially for Sn, Zn, Pb. The risk level for PGMs (Pt, Pd) slightly went down during 1994 – 2012.