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[1412] Estimation of Long Term Sustainability for Silver Supply

^○Li Wenhua¹, Adachi Tsuyoshi¹ (1.秋田大学)

司会:村上進亮(東京大学)

Keywords:substitution, electricity conversion efficiency, recycling rate

The study modeled silver supply and demand until 2050 to indicate its supply shortage. The model includes silver physical supply and fabrication demand units balanced by withdraw and investment. Different aspects of dynamic technology progress are considered by scenarios. Cumulative net supply shortage and resource depletion time are estimated to indicate long term sustainability for silver supply. The result shows that silver supply cannot sustain itself unless technology progress materialized. And main driving force of silver demand turns out to be PV installation.