岩盤力学・開発機械

[1512] Dangerous Lunar Phases in which Giant Earthquakes Concentrate for Each Subduction Zone Revisited

^○Fujii Yoshiaki¹, Tsuboi Yusuke¹, Fukuda Daisuke¹, Kodama Jun-ichi¹ (1.Hokkaido University)

司会:伊藤高敏(東北大学)

キーワード：Dangerous lunar phases, Giant earthquakes, Subduction zone

The authors found dangerous lunar phases in which giant earthquakes, whose moment magnitude is more than or equal to 8, concentrate for each subduction zone and the significance of the dangerous lunar phases was statistically tested. There were however some ambiguities in selection of giant earthquakes and the rules to determine the phases were not strictly defined. In this paper, giant earthquakes were carefully selected again referring to their location on the map and dangerous lunar phases were strictly determined based on the proposed rules. The result for earthquakes whose moment magnitude is more than or equal to 7.5 for Peru and a method to predict the next giant earthquake are also shown.