資源開発技術・資源と社会

[1507] Indicator development for country risk in metal supply

^○李文華, 安達毅 (秋田大学)

司会: 安達毅(秋田大学)

Keywords:metal supply、country risk、resource nationalism、panel logit modeling

Rapid development of countries like China and India as well as high development prospect of Africa continent in the coming decades will consume many metals. It resulted in increasing concern over metal supply risk assessment. Numerous indicators are developed to quantify different aspects of supply risk against the importance of the metal for varying countries or regions. Country risk of metal supply is thought to be difficult to quantitatively evaluate. Therefore, the author developed an indicator to assess country risk of metal supply by combining supply market concentration and political risk for mining sector. Concentration ratio is represented by HHI (Herfindahl–Hirschman Index), and political risk for mining sector is represented by resource nationalism, which is the most commonly used means for government to directly impose risky policies to mining sector. The two parts are multiplied together to represent country risk of metal supply. Possibility of a country to impose resource nationalism is modelled by panel binomial logit model under Stata software using 82 countries data from 2000 to2013. Relevant variables that dominant resource nationalism are found to be natural resource rent, square of natural resource rent, debt service ratio, political perception index for mining, government efficiency, and regulation quality. Above all, there are several metals being tested by the indicator including silver, gold, platinum, palladium, copper, lead, nickel, zinc, and tin.  The result is expected to delivery better implication compared to traditional HHI and WGI (world governance indicator).