[O3-3]
Value of advance information for earthquake damage reduction and its feasibility

[O3-3-01] Value of advance information for earthquake damage reduction and its feasibility

Toshihiro Mori¹, *Izumi Tobo², *Ken Umeno³, *Yukio Fujinawa⁴, Atsushi Oono¹, Takashi Mii¹, Tadahiro Eguchi¹, Morihiro Matsuda¹, Michiaki Yokoyama¹ (1. OPTAGE Inc., 2. Mitsubishi Research Institute, Inc., 3. Kyoto University, 4. Organization for Development of Resilient Communities)

Keywords:Value of advance information, Nankai Trough Earthquake, the state-of-the-art earthquake technology, feasibility, earthquake precursors

In this session, the value of advance information for earthquake damage reduction will be shared,
and experts will introduce the state-of-the-art earthquake precursor detection technology in Japan.

The probability of a huge earthquake in the Nankai Trough is estimated to be 70-80% within the next 30 years.
In addition, the estimated number of fatalities is up to 320,000, of which 230,000 are caused by the tsunami.

In order to reduce such expected damage, the Meteorological Agency has announced that it will issue an order of emergency information if an abnormal phenomenon is observed along the Nankai Trough.

(Case of abnormal phenomenon)
・ Half of Nankai Trough's epicenter is broken and the other half remains
・ M7 class earthquake occurs near the epicenter area of Nankai Trough
・ A significant change is observed by a strain gauge

By distributing such advance information, many people can take actions in advance, which leads to mitigation of earthquake damages.

We believe that we need to improve the accuracy of useful emergency information.
That is because people can understand the increased risk, but they do not know when an earthquake will occur.

Recently, a number of abnormal phenomena before an earthquake have been reported.
We believe that it will lead to further improvement in accuracy by using such information.
In this session, we introduce the latest research and discuss its feasibility.