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[P-25] Toward Resilient cities: disaster Risk Reduction analysis of Urban Water Infrastructures in A Potential Earthquake (Case study: Region 2 of Tehran Municipality)

*seyedmohsen alavi¹, Mohammadreza Rezaei² (1. York University, 2. Yazd University)

Keywords:Risk , Resilience, Earthquake, Infrastructure, Urban

The increasing dependence on urban lifeline systems, especially, water infrastructure, have led to an increased emphasis on disaster-resilience cities. Water infrastructure resilience is the ability of a system to both withstand uncertain conditions caused by natural disasters and to recover quickly from the disastrous events. Urban infrastructure resilience evaluates by a model which analysis restoration time, serviceability index and resistance features. The purpose of this research is to promote a new practical approach to analyze urban resilience and propose a risk reduction plan. This research analysis urban disaster risks based on earthquake scenarios, infrastructures serviceability and affected urban population in a metropolitan area. The methodological approach of this paper is practical and focuses on the water system risk management in district two of Tehran city, Iran, in the context of the proposed scenario earthquakes. This article’s methodological approach is practical and concentrates on the risk reduction analysis of water infrastructure services in a probable earthquake. This research uses Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) to estimate the seismic features such as PGA and PGV of a most probable earthquake in the case study area. To better understand the system resilience, three restoration scenarios based on disaster risk analysis were analyzed. Complete restoration of the system takes more than 89.5 days, which is more than the urban resilience threshold. Results indicate that existing risk reduction plans of urban infrastructure need to be changed. Based on disaster scenarios, urban water infrastructure’s damages and inhabitants’ minimum demands, this research proposes a comprehensive urban risk reduction plan. Analyses of the proposed risk reduction plan indicate that the increase of the resilience factor will reduce restoration time to less than 29.8 days, which fulfill the standard threshold target for emergency water supply.