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[P-40] Typhoon Wind Speed VS. Storm Surge Inundation: Understanding Risk of Building Damage from Statistical Analysis

*Natt Leelawat¹, Tanaporn Chaivutitorn¹, Thawalrat Tanasakcharoen¹, Jing Tang¹, Carl Vincent C. Caro², Alfredo Mahar Lagmay³, Anawat Suppasri⁴, Jeremy Bricker⁵, Volker Roeber⁶, Carine J. Yi⁷, Fumihiko Imamura⁴ (1. Chulalongkorn University, 2. Philippine Disaster Resilience Foundation, 3. University of the Philippines Diliman, 4. Tohoku University, 5. Delft University of Technology, 6. Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour, 7. R. Park & Associates Inc.)

Keywords:Super Typhoon, Storm Surge, Building Damage, Statistical Analysis

In November 2013, Super Typhoon Haiyan (Local name: Yolanda), with the highest category 5, hit the Philippines. When we look at the number of collapsed buildings, some interesting issues can be found. Some similar buildings did not collapse equally after the hitting of the typhoon. We also found that some of them got high impact from storm surge. These findings induce our research problem of determining the potential association between the typhoon and the storm surge. The research purpose is to develop a statistical model for building damage from the Super Typhoon Haiyan and its storm surge. The independent parameter is wind speed and depth of storm surge while the dependent setting is the damage level. The data is based on the satellite and other sources. The maximum wind speed is calculated from the Holland parametric hurricane model based on the Japan Meteorological Agency typhoon track data. Storm surge inundation depth is calculated by Delft3D models. The statistical analysis, including correlation analysis and multinomial logistic regression, was conducted. Surprisingly, the affecting factors of urban and remote areas show different results. The result of this work is expected to be used to develop urban planning for preventing buildings located in a typhoon risk area.