1:00 PM - 2:30 PM
[S14P-03] Comparison of Models of Long-term Seismic Hazard and with An Application to North China
The results were compared and analyzed through the cross-validation method, to ensure accurate reflection of the seismic activity in North China. The sophisticated ODTB method is more stable than the others, but is relatively expensive, in terms of computation demands, while Zhuang et al.’s kernel estimate and the new ICVT method are able to provide reasonable estimates and easier to implement.
We also calculated the spatial variations of the b-value, using the Bayesian method with smoothness prior proposed by Ogata. By combining the results of seismicity rate distribution and b-value distribution, we simulate the earthquake catalogue. Compared with the original catalogue, it turns out that these four models are effective in reproducing the seismicity of the study region, suggesting their feasibility of estimating future seismic hazard.
Using comparative analyses and simulation experiments, we show that all of methods give similar spatial patterns of seismic occurrences.