Japan Association for Medical Informatics

[AP2-E1-3-03] Modelling and Forecasting the Capacity Needs and Patient Load in Designated COVID Hospitals in Underserved Areas

*Pramod D Jacob1, Verghese A Thomas1, Simran Agrawal2 (1. DHIndia Association, India, 2. Goa Institute of Management, India)

COVID-19, Prediction Modelling, Forecasting, Capacity Planning and Management, Designated COVID-19 Hospitals

The global COVID-19 pandemic has posed significant threats to health care systems in developing countries such as India which were operating under infrastructural and manpower constraints before the pandemic reached Indian populations. One of the major challenges of the pandemic has been to anticipate the requirement for hospital beds in COVID-19 designated hospitals between a week to four weeks into the future. DHIndia Association (Digital Health India Association) has been offering the power of Information Technology to some selected hospitals in underserved areas of rural India to provide them with estimates of caseloads from a day to a month ahead to aid in their hospital planning and to guide protocols. The methodology used was a predictive model based on the SIR (Susceptible Infected Recovered) paradigm from the University of Pennsylvania. The model gave predicted numbers of cases for almost a month in advance. The model was applied to a hospital in Jalna, Maharashtra and Simdega, Jharkhand. The estimates from the model were found to be close to the actual number of patients admitted in these hospitals. The results of the model runs were used to guide the hospital administrators and health officials in managing their COVID-19 protocols and infrastructure so that their hospital capacity and supplies would not be exceeded. These case studies demonstrate a timely and unique application of health information technology for the benefit of remote Indian hospitals working amongst underserved communities.