Japan Association for Medical Informatics

[2-G-2-05] Global COVID-19 vaccination trends: a joinpoint model of the vaccination data from January 2021 to June 2022

*Syed Mahfuz Al Hasan1, Jennifer Saulam2,3, Fumiaki Mikami2, Hideto Yokoi2 (1. Clinical Research Support Centre, Kagawa University Hospital, Kagawa, Japan, 2. Department of Medical Informatics, Kagawa University Hospital, Kagawa, Japan, 3. Department of Food Processing and Nutrition, Karnataka State Akkamahadevi Women's University, Vijayapura, Karnataka, India)

COVID-19 Vaccination, Global, Joinpoint regression analysis

We aimed to analyze the global COVID-19 vaccination trends from January 2021 to June 2022. We used the “Our World in Data COVID-19 Vaccination” dataset compiled by the University of Oxford, a global public database that tracks the scale and rate of the vaccine rollout across the world. A joinpoint regression model selected through the data-driven Bayesian information criterion method was used for analyzing the global vaccination trends. To describe linear trends by period, the estimated regression coefficients (β) were then computed for each of those vaccination trends. As of 29 June 2022, about 66.4% of the world population received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine and 60.9% of the world population were fully vaccinated. However, there was a marked difference in vaccination between the high-income and low-income countries. The global vaccination rate (at least one dose) was found the highest in the first half of September 2021, with 0.22% of the global population vaccinated per day. Since then, the vaccination rate started to decrease significantly. In April 2022, the rate reduced to 0.04% of the global population per day and further to only 0.01% during the last week of June 2022. The rate of full vaccination (at least two doses) was found the highest in the first half of December 2021, with 0.21% of the global population fully vaccinated per day. The rate reduced to 0.03% of the global population per day during June 2022. Reduced vaccination rates and disparities between the high-income and low-income countries increase the inequities in global vaccine access.