JpGU-AGU Joint Meeting 2017

講演情報

[EE] ポスター発表

セッション記号 A (大気水圏科学) » A-CG 大気水圏科学複合領域・一般

[A-CG44] [EE] Asian monsoon hydro-climate and water resources research for GEWEX

2017年5月21日(日) 10:45 〜 12:15 ポスター会場 (国際展示場 7ホール)

コンビーナ:鼎 信次郎(東京工業大学 環境・社会理工学院)、樋口 篤志(千葉大学環境リモートセンシング研究センター)、松本 淳(首都大学東京大学院都市環境科学研究科地理環境科学専攻)、横井 覚(海洋研究開発機構)

[ACG44-P07] Uncertainty from climate forcing of glacier projection for High Mountain Asia

*渡辺 恵1渡部 哲史3平林 由希子3吉川 沙耶花2鼎 信次郎2 (1.東京工業大学情報理工学研究科、2.東京工業大学環境・社会理工学院、3.東京大学大学院工学系研究科 )

キーワード:Glacier, Precipitation, GCM

Current model-based projections in glacier runoff are affected by considerable uncertainties. One of the largest uncertainties originates from climate forcing especially precipitation data. Underestimation of input precipitation data due to poor gauge network in mountainous regions is serious problem. Climate model driven information on climate change is also needed for future projection of glacier but often deemed unreliable. Those hamper effort to simulate the glacier runoff peak timing and magnitude. This research aims at an assessment of the major uncertainties from climate forcing in the modeling of future glacier runoff.

The glacier runoffs were calculated by a glacier model (HYOGA2) forced by two precipitation data and observed temperature data over historical period. Future glacier runoff was projected forced by eight climate models under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The glacier model was calibrated using two precipitation date-sets. Bias correction of climate models were also done by comparing against two precipitation data-sets. The uncertainty of glacier runoff projection from input precipitation datasets and climate model spread will be discussed.