[2I14-19] Radionuclides Migration

[2I14] Study of the evacuation of residents in nuclear emergency

(1) The impact of shadow evacuation rates to evacuation time estimation

*Kazumasa Shimada¹, Kazuya Yamamoto¹, Shogo Takahara¹ (1. JAEA)

Keywords:Nuclear Emergency and Preparedness, Evacuation plan, Evacuation Time Estimation, Traffic Simulation, Shadow Evacuation

Evacuation time estimation (ETE) by traffic simulation is one of the methods to evaluate the effectiveness of the wide area evacuation plan in a nuclear emergency. In this presentation, we will use the traffic simulation software PTV VISON to estimate the time it takes for residents with a radius of about 5 km (PAZ) to escape from the nuclear facility outside the radius of about 5-30 km (UPZ). The effects of the shadow evacuation rate of UPZ residents and the method of setting the starting point of evacuation vehicles on the results are shown. In this study, the evacuation time when the shadow evacuation rate of residents was 40% was close to the average value of ETE conducted in the past ETE examples of Japan. In addition, it became clear that the time for PAZ residents to evacuate from the UPZ area was overestimated by taking a simple method of setting only one starting point for each municipality. Therefore, it was shown that setting the number of starting points appropriately is a prerequisite for ETE.