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[MIS01-P10] Climate risks for natural and anthropogenic systems of the Lake Baikal basin
Keywords:Lake Baikal, climate risks, climate change, natural systems, anthropogenic systems
Lake Baikal is known as one of the World Nature Heritage Objects. Its basin covers 571 000 km² in Russia and Mongolia.
According to Köppen-Geiger classification the climate is severe subarctic and continental (Dfc and Dwc). Lake Baikal is surrounded by mountain systems, which serve as geographical barriers. Zonal taiga and steppe ecosystems in the mountains change to light coniferous forests, tundra and spaces without vegetation on highlands. The population density is low, about 3 people/km2. The largest cities are Ulaanbaatar (1.5 million people) and Irkutsk (0.6), Ulan-Ude (0.4) and Chita (0.3).
To analyze observed climate changes and its extremeness, we used databases of the Russian Hydrometeorological Service (Roshydromet) and Climate Research Unit Reanalysis. To assess climate change projections, we used the results of the Roshydromet Climate Center regional model for Russian parts of the basin and results of CIMIP-6 project from an interactive Atlas to IPCC AR6 WGI for the territory of Mongolia.
According to observations and scientific publications, a set of extremal weather events has manifested in the region: heat and cold waves, extreme rains and snowfalls, floods, hurricanes, mudflows, landslides and avalanches, forest fires and pest outbreaks.
Warming rate reaches 0.3-0.4 °C in 10 years, increasing in spring to 0.6°C/10 years. The mean annual temperature can rise by 2.2-3°C in the middle and by 4-6°C by the end of the century compared to 1990-1999 (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The number of warm days is increasing and the number of cold days is decreasing. Heatwaves can negatively impact public health, biodiversity, urban infrastructure and power transmission efficiency.
The average annual precipitation varies from 200 mm/year in Mongolia to 1500-2000 mm/year in the mountains. In the north-west of the region, the amount of precipitation increases by 5-10% per 10 years, while in the east-south it decreases at the same rate, in summer stronger. Precipitation can increase by 50-125 mm in the wetter parts of the region, but may decrease by 20-50 mm in the drier parts by mid-century. This can negatively affect the water supply of the entire region, agriculture and hydropower.
Droughts occur regularly and sometimes last up to two months. The most dangerous event is the combination with temperature above 25°C or wind over 15 m/s.
Floods regularly cause significant economic damage. The last of the catastrophic flood occurred in 2019 in the Angara River basin, which lies downstream of the Lake Baikal basin. The total damage was estimated by the government at 315 billion rubles. Increasing irregularities and maximum of rainfalls increases the risk.
Mudflows and landslides are widespread in the Baikal basin. Damage is regularly caused to railways and roads, less often to power lines and buildings. The most catastrophic event occurred in 1971 as a result of extreme rainfalls. In subsequent years, with similar daily precipitations, mudflow activity was less.
Forest fires happen annually from May to October. 10-20% of them are associated with dry thunderstorms. Observational data and forecasts of climate change demonstrate an increase in the values of Nesterov’s fire risk index in most of the region, as well as an increase in the duration of periods of high fire probability by 10-20 days.
Hurricanes lead to the destruction of buildings, interruptions in the power supply and forest destruction on tens and hundreds of square kilometers.
The probable damage from hazardous weather events for large cities in the region is comparable to Murmansk in the Arctic, in the densely populated European territory of Russia and the Caucasus mountains. It is estimated by economists at 1-10 million rubles annually for Bratsk and Irkutsk and 10-100 million for Ulan-Ude.
To reduce damages, it is necessary to develop a transboundary long-term plan for adaptation to climate change.
According to Köppen-Geiger classification the climate is severe subarctic and continental (Dfc and Dwc). Lake Baikal is surrounded by mountain systems, which serve as geographical barriers. Zonal taiga and steppe ecosystems in the mountains change to light coniferous forests, tundra and spaces without vegetation on highlands. The population density is low, about 3 people/km2. The largest cities are Ulaanbaatar (1.5 million people) and Irkutsk (0.6), Ulan-Ude (0.4) and Chita (0.3).
To analyze observed climate changes and its extremeness, we used databases of the Russian Hydrometeorological Service (Roshydromet) and Climate Research Unit Reanalysis. To assess climate change projections, we used the results of the Roshydromet Climate Center regional model for Russian parts of the basin and results of CIMIP-6 project from an interactive Atlas to IPCC AR6 WGI for the territory of Mongolia.
According to observations and scientific publications, a set of extremal weather events has manifested in the region: heat and cold waves, extreme rains and snowfalls, floods, hurricanes, mudflows, landslides and avalanches, forest fires and pest outbreaks.
Warming rate reaches 0.3-0.4 °C in 10 years, increasing in spring to 0.6°C/10 years. The mean annual temperature can rise by 2.2-3°C in the middle and by 4-6°C by the end of the century compared to 1990-1999 (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The number of warm days is increasing and the number of cold days is decreasing. Heatwaves can negatively impact public health, biodiversity, urban infrastructure and power transmission efficiency.
The average annual precipitation varies from 200 mm/year in Mongolia to 1500-2000 mm/year in the mountains. In the north-west of the region, the amount of precipitation increases by 5-10% per 10 years, while in the east-south it decreases at the same rate, in summer stronger. Precipitation can increase by 50-125 mm in the wetter parts of the region, but may decrease by 20-50 mm in the drier parts by mid-century. This can negatively affect the water supply of the entire region, agriculture and hydropower.
Droughts occur regularly and sometimes last up to two months. The most dangerous event is the combination with temperature above 25°C or wind over 15 m/s.
Floods regularly cause significant economic damage. The last of the catastrophic flood occurred in 2019 in the Angara River basin, which lies downstream of the Lake Baikal basin. The total damage was estimated by the government at 315 billion rubles. Increasing irregularities and maximum of rainfalls increases the risk.
Mudflows and landslides are widespread in the Baikal basin. Damage is regularly caused to railways and roads, less often to power lines and buildings. The most catastrophic event occurred in 1971 as a result of extreme rainfalls. In subsequent years, with similar daily precipitations, mudflow activity was less.
Forest fires happen annually from May to October. 10-20% of them are associated with dry thunderstorms. Observational data and forecasts of climate change demonstrate an increase in the values of Nesterov’s fire risk index in most of the region, as well as an increase in the duration of periods of high fire probability by 10-20 days.
Hurricanes lead to the destruction of buildings, interruptions in the power supply and forest destruction on tens and hundreds of square kilometers.
The probable damage from hazardous weather events for large cities in the region is comparable to Murmansk in the Arctic, in the densely populated European territory of Russia and the Caucasus mountains. It is estimated by economists at 1-10 million rubles annually for Bratsk and Irkutsk and 10-100 million for Ulan-Ude.
To reduce damages, it is necessary to develop a transboundary long-term plan for adaptation to climate change.