11:20 AM - 11:35 AM
[1D06] An evaluation of long-term landscape evolution considering uncertainties in future sea-level change
Keywords:Landscape evolution, Sea-level change, Geological disposal, Safety assessment
In geological disposal, landscape evolution by uplift, denudation, and sea-level change will change geological environment and decrease the depth of disposal. This may lower safety functions of disposal system: therefore, the effect needs to be evaluated properly. Landscape evolution can be evaluated quantitatively using landscape evolution models. In general, the evaluation is based on extrapolation of the past. However, the future sea-level change may differ from the past because of greenhouse gases. In this study, we constructed the evaluation method for future long-term landscape evolution based on the past landscape evolution. We confirm the applicability in the typical basin consisting of mountain, river, plain, and sea. The effect to future landscape evolution by uncertainties of sea-level change were evaluated.