5:35 PM - 5:50 PM
[2K16] Study on Quantitative Impact Analyses of Vector-valued Fragility Curves’ Variation on System Failure Probability
Keywords:Fragility curve, Variation, System failure probability, Measure, Central Limit Theorem
In general, it is assumed that seismic fragility curve follow a lognormal distribution, and its parameters is estimated on the basis of numerical analyses and existing studies’ results. The lognormal distribution can express characteristics of probability based on “Law of Large Numbers” and that works fairly useful for engineering purposes. Whereas, we can safely say that the distribution is insufficient to formulate SSC’s fragility in cases where the failure occurs suddenly or discontinuously, or tails of distributions dominate failure criteria; “Central Limit Theory” is weakly established.
To begin with, this paper discusses investigation on a fragility curve from the mathematical viewpoint. Then, we analyse impact of fragility curves’ variation on failure probability numerically computed for the simplified plant system.
To begin with, this paper discusses investigation on a fragility curve from the mathematical viewpoint. Then, we analyse impact of fragility curves’ variation on failure probability numerically computed for the simplified plant system.