[3A07-10] Environmental Safety Assessment

[3A08] Development of a source term estimation method based on Bayesian inference with multi-scale atmospheric dispersion simulations

*Hiroaki Terada¹, Haruyasu Nagai¹, Katsunori Tsuduki¹, Masanao Kadowaki¹, Akiko Furuno¹ (1. JAEA)

Keywords:source term, Bayesian inference, atmospheric dispersion, numerical simulation, Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station accident, WSPEEDI

We have developed a method for estimation of source term of radioactive materials released into the atmosphere in nuclear accidents by comprehensive comparison of atmospheric dispersion simulations with different spatial scales and various types of environmental measurements. By applying this method to the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station accident, the release rate estimated by the previous study was optimized and the effectiveness was examined of the method.