[3J06-09] External/DynamicPRA

[3J09] Approach Comparison of Uncertainty Treatment in PRA and Dynamic PRA

*Xiaoyu Zheng¹, Hitoshi Tamaki¹, Tomoyuki Sugiyama¹ (1. JAEA)

Keywords:PRA, Dynamic PRA, Aleatory uncertainty, Epistemic uncertainty, Probability of frequency

Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is an approach to quantifying risk of accidents including their stochastic uncertainties and consequences. However, because of inadequate understanding of phenomena, PRA results involve epistemic uncertainties. In this study, from the perspective of probability-of-frequency, we compared approaches of conventional PRA and dynamic PRA. Dynamic PRA has the advantages in the treatment of dependencies between accident progression and failure modes, so it is a promising approach possibly to mitigating epistemic uncertainties.