[2F09-13] Environmental Dynamics

[2F12] Performance evaluation of atmospheric dispersion model ensemble for plume arrival prediction performance near the nuclear power plant

*Yusaku Kiriyama¹, Hiromi Yamazawa¹, Jun Moriizumi¹ (1. Nagoya University)

Keywords:FDNPP accident, Atmospheric dispersion prediction , Emergency application

Using the calculation results of multiple atmospheric dispersion models, we examined the method of predicting the arrival of plumes at locations near the nuclear site at the time of the nuclear accident. Using the calculation results of 9 models submitted to the International Model Comparison Project, and introducing the ensemble mean and safety time margin, for the prediction of plume arrival within the area corresponding to the UPZ of about 30 km from the nuclear power plant. We devised an information presentation method that was coarse-grained, and examined its validity.