[3G01-05] Risk Evaluation Method

[3G02] Development of Risk Assessment Methodology to Support the Optimization of Nuclear Disaster Prevention Planning

Part2: Development of Risk Assessment Model on Evacuation of Residents

*Shohei Yamagishi¹, Tsuyoshi Tamukai¹, Soichi Mabuchi¹, Hitoshi Muta², Yasuki Ohtori², Sakura Fukue², Tsuyoshi Takada³, Akemi Nishida³, Takenori Hida⁴ (1. ITOCHU Techno-Solutions Corporation, 2. Tokyo City University, 3. Japan Atomic Energy Agency, 4. Ibaraki University)

Keywords:Nuclear Disaster Prevention Planning, Evacuation Plan, Risk Assessment, Optimization, DET, Surrogate model

The risk assessment methodologies that will be required in the future need to be more realistic and appropriately deal with the premise that humans make decisions and formulate behaviors according to the situation, and that responses to accidents and evacuation behaviors can change dynamically. In this presentation, the basic concept of the "risk assessment model on Evacuation of Residents" consisting of the following is reported.
(1) Development of a model that can represent the situation on the evacuation route, which is related to the evacuation behavior of residents during a severe accident, as an event tree considering the time series.
(2) A model for evaluating the risk of evacuation of the general public, which can simulate the decisions of decision-making bodies and the evacuation behavior of the general public in a severe accident environment.
(3) Development of a simulation system to simulate human behavior in various situations during evacuation based on human behavioral principles, and development of an agent model based on this result.