[1N14-19] Dynamic & Multi-hazards PRA

[1N16] Development of probabilistic risk assessment method considering multi-hazards

Part 1: Research Plan and Aim

*Tsuyoshi Takada¹, Akemi Nishida¹, Byunghyun Choi¹, Kiyotaka Takito¹, Hideaki Tsutsumi², Ken Muramatsu¹, kotaro Kubo^1,3 (1. JAEA, 2. Total Support System, 3. NRA)

Keywords:Multi-hazard, PRA, Screening Method, External hazard

One of the lessons learned from the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant Accident is the need to develop risk assessment methods that take into account multiple complex hazards that cause different effects on the plant: earthquakes (shaking) and tsunamis (submersion). However, due to the complexity of the treatment and the lack of related basic research, conservative assumptions have been set or ignored. Therefore, in order to ensure the safety of nuclear facilities subject to the complex hazards, it is necessary to consider appropriate methodologies and screening methods for handling complex hazards in order to develop probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methods that can quantitatively handle the uncertainty of physical phenomena. In this paper, based on review of a wide range of related researches, we report the research plan and the items to be focused. The results of the study are presented as a roadmap for the development of PRA methods that can take into account complex hazards.