[2N01-05] Seismic PRA 1

[2N03] Copula for evaluating the seismic risk of a system considering correlation

*Yasuki Ohtori¹, Hitoshi Muta¹ (1. Tokyo City University)

Keywords:copula, seismic correlation, seismic risk, Monte Carlo Simulation, random number

To consider the damage correlation in seismic risk assessment, Monte Carlo simulation is one of the promising methods. However, utilizing standard and existing fragility curves are facing difficulties because of decomposing into response and capacity distributions from failure probability. This paper proposes a direct quantitation method for evaluating the seismic risk using random numbers following to copula. Copula is characterized by the ability to express various dependencies among multivariate probability distributions and dependencies using correlation coefficients among distributions. By using random numbers according to this copula, seismic risk assessment of systems with damage correlations can be easily assessed.