[2B10-13] Nuclear Emergency and Preparedness

[2B10] Evaluation of applicability of a source term estimation method based on Bayesian inference to real-time source term estimation in emergency

*Hiroaki Terada¹, Haruyasu Nagai¹, Katsunori Tsuduki¹, Masanao Kadowaki¹ (1. JAEA)

Keywords:emergency response, source term, Bayesian inference, atmospheric dispersion, numerical simulation, Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station accident, WSPEEDI

We have developed a Bayesian-inference based method to estimate source term of radioactive materials released into the atmosphere in nuclear accidents by comprehensive comparison of atmospheric dispersion simulations and environmental monitoring data. By a hypothetical real-time source term estimation experiment using data of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station accident, the applicability to emergency of the method was evaluated.