[1D08-12] External Event PRA 1

[1D10] Quantification of Uncertainties in Seismic Fragility Evaluation of Equipment and Civil Structures Considering Ageing Deterioration (Part1)

*Ayumi Yuyama¹, Yohei Ninomiya¹, Masato Nakajima¹ (1. CRIEPI)

Keywords:Seismic PRA, Seismic fragility, Ageing deterioration, Aleatory variability, Epistemic uncertainty, Logic tree, Equipment, Civil infrastructure

Conventional fragility evaluations model the capacity, response, and their uncertainties based on information at the time of construction. However, in order to evaluate fragility considering aging, it is necessary to newly predict the progress of degradation phenomena and their effects on capacity and response, as well as quantifying their uncertainties. In this paper, we focus on carbonation of reinforced concrete structures and attempt to assess the amount of rebar corrosion and its uncertainty. The process of carbonation is classified into 3 periods. The boundary values for each period and available corrosion rate were reviewed and organized as a logic tree. We quantify the aleatory variability as the variability within a path and the epistemic uncertainty as that among paths.