[1D08-12] External Event PRA 1

[1D12] An evaluation method of annual strike probability of typhoon-borne missiles toward typhoon PRA

*YUZURU EGUCHI¹, MITSUHARU NOMURA¹, YASUO HATTORI¹, TAKAHIRO MURAKAMI¹ (1. CRIEPI)

Keywords:Typhoon, Missile, Annual strike probability, Typhoon PRA

To evaluate the annual probability that wind-borne missiles generated during typhoons will collide with structures in a nuclear plant site, we formulated a computational evaluation model. We assumed for the model construction that the wind direction of typhoons is statistically uniform and developed the annual collision probability evaluation code TOMAXI-typ. We will show an example of computation for a hypothetical site using this evaluation code, using the scattering characteristics of typhoon-borne missiles and the hypothetical typhoon wind speed hazard curve as input conditions.