1-III_am

[30] A trial to improve the Living Environment Score which forecasts population increase

Alternating distance measures to public facilities and density measures of commercial facilities

○Hisatoshi Ai¹ (1. The University of Tokyo)

Keywords:Living environment score, Population increase forecast, Tokyo metropolitan area, Local census districts

Living Environment Score (LES) is an index designed to evaluate the living environment factors of local communities from the standing point that whether the area can attract residents to move into the area. LES is calculated from 13 factors such as accessibility to railway stations, public facilities, shops and offices, landform, land use, and residents’ characteristics. The performance of LES can be evaluated by the hit rate indicating the portion of areas experiencing population increase among areas with high LES. In this paper, we discuss whether we can improve the hit rate by alternating accessibility indices from the distance between the area edge and the facility location to the distance between the area centroid and the facility location. We also alternate the factor regarding the shop and office counts with their densities. Following the earlier studies, we calculate LES for younger and productive generations respectively and discuss whether the proposed method can improve the hit rate.