1-III_am

[31] A Consideration on Utilization of Population and Household Projections by Subregion for Urban Revitalization in an Era of Urban Shrinkage

with a Study of a Metropolitan Suburb

○Shunichiro Yoshitake¹ (1. Yoshitake Urban Research Institute Co., Ltd.)

Keywords:population projections, household projections, urban shrinkage, Proper location plan, Metropolitan suburbs

The aim of this paper is to consider the possibility to utilize population and household projections by subregion as a method for urban revitalization in an era of urban shrinkage. The cohort -factor method and the cohort-change rate method are popular methods, but both have problem of parameter instability. For handling of this problem, it is effective to narrow down subregions as subject of projections by the perspective of population, tenure of dwelling, and type of building. And in order to revitalize subregions of which population is declining, it is important to calculate the increase of vacant houses and vacant lots on each subregions in 20 years, by estimating changes of family members and family type of household with declining and aging of population.