9:20 AM - 9:40 AM
[D1-02] Can "Living Environment Score" forecast future population trends?
Keywords:Compact City, Living Environment, Population Trends
Japan is now facing population decline and rapid aging. This has forced the Japanese city planning system to change its target issue from growth control to the compact city planning. To make a city compact, what should the planners, which is the municipalities, do is to figure out which area has a potential to attract residents and to discuss which living environment component is important for the area to attract more residents. The living environment score, LES, is designed to evaluate the above issue and is a comprehensive score of living environment of the area from the point of view whether the area can attract residents or not. In the research proposed the LES calculation, population trends between years 2000 and 2010 is considered. In this study, we discuss whether the LES can reflect the attractiveness of the area by comparing the LES and the population trends after 2010. In detail, the population trends are derived by the comparisons of (1) National Census data of 2020 and 2010, and (2) future population forecast of 2020 and National Census data of 2020. The discussion is based on cross tabulations and map visualizations.