12:14 PM - 12:32 PM
[9] A STUDY ON REVENUE PREDICTION FOR OUTDOOR EVENT PROJECT USING WEATHER AND DATE INDICES
Keywords:Daily maximum wind speed, Daily mean temperature, EaR, Outdoor event, Weather risk
Many of company or human activities are exposed to weather risks, and specifically the success of outdoor event projects is dependent on weather condition. For hedging the risks, it needs to estimate the effect of weather on the revenue. In this study, the fluctuation of the daily visitor number of outdoor events is analyzed, and the relationship between a few weather elements and the visitor number is investigated. A simple formula for predicting the daily visitor number is derived from the result of the analysis. The formula is applied to simulate the daily revenue and the earning at risk of the outdoor events is estimated.