日本地球惑星科学連合2014年大会

講演情報

インターナショナルセッション(口頭発表)

セッション記号 S (固体地球科学) » S-SS 地震学

[S-SS01_2PM1] Earthquake predictability research after the 2011 Tohoku earthquake (2)

2014年5月2日(金) 14:15 〜 16:00 419 (4F)

コンビーナ:*鶴岡 弘(東京大学地震研究所)、Schorlemmer Danijel(GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences)、平田 直(東京大学地震研究所)、座長:Schorlemmer Danijel(GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences)、庄 建倉(統計数理研究所)

14:45 〜 15:00

[SSS01-03] Prospective evaluation of 3-month testing class of the CSEP-Japan earthquake forecasts

*鶴岡 弘1平田 直1 (1.東京大学地震研究所)

キーワード:CSEP, 地震予測, 地震活動

Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) is a global project of earthquake predictability research. The primary purposes of the CSEP is to develop a virtual, distributed laboratory. The final goal of this project is to investigate the intrinsic predictability of earthquake rupture mechanisms. One major focus of the Japanese earthquake prediction research plan 2009-2013 is testable earthquake forecast models. So, the Earthquake Research Institute joined the CSEP and installed in an international collaboration a testing center as CSEP-Japan for rigorous evaluation of earthquake forecast models. A total of 160 models were submitted from all over the world. And CSEP-Japan started the prospective experiments from 1 November 2009. The models are currently under test in 12 categories, with 3 testing regions and 4 testing classes of different time spans (1day, 3 month, 1 year and 3 years). We evaluate the performance of the models in the official suite of tests defined by the CSEP (L, M, N, S, R, T and W tests) against authorized catalogue compiled by Japan Meteorological Agency.CSEP-Japan testing center has conducted over 6-12 rounds tests for 3-month testing classes including 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake. We will discuss these results of evaluation test of the prospective experiments, and checked the performance of the earthquake models.