Japan Geoscience Union Meeting 2015

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Oral

Symbol M (Multidisciplinary and Interdisciplinary) » M-GI General Geosciences, Information Geosciences & Simulations

[M-GI37] Earth and planetary informatics with huge data management

Thu. May 28, 2015 11:00 AM - 12:45 PM 203 (2F)

Convener:*Eizi TOYODA(Numerical Prediction Division, Japan Meteorological Agency), Mayumi Wakabayashi(Kiso-Jiban Consultants Co.,Ltd), Susumu Nonogaki(Geological Survey of Japan, National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology), Eizi TOYODA(Numerical Prediction Division, Japan Meteorological Agency), Ken T. Murata(National Institute of Information and Communications Technology), Junya Terazono(The University of Aizu), Tomoaki Hori(Nagoya University Solar Terrestrial Environment Laboratory Geospace Research Center), Kazuo Ohtake(Japan Meteorological Agency), Takeshi Horinouchi(Faculty of Environmental Earth Science, Hokkaido University), Chair:Eizi TOYODA(Numerical Prediction Division, Japan Meteorological Agency), Mayumi Wakabayashi(Kiso-Jiban Consultants Co.,Ltd)

11:30 AM - 11:45 AM

[MGI37-19] Modeling of typhoon translation velocity based on past typhoon track data

*Shin'ya NAKANO1, Kosuke ITO2, Kazue SUZUKI1, Genta UENO1 (1.The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, 2.Faculty of Science, University of the Ryukyus)

Keywords:typhoon, tropical cyclone, Gaussian process regression, spatial statistics

The motion of a typhoon is mainly controlled by the background large-scale wind velocity field. The pattern of typhoon trajectory can thus vary due to the variations of the background wind velocity field. Since a typhoon may cause a serious disaster in the East Asia region, it is important to evaluate the variations of the motion pattern of typhoons. We have developed a model of the spatial pattern of the typhoon translation velocity field based on the typhoon track data for about sixty years. This model was obtained by using the Gaussian process regression technique, which enable us to represent typical typhoon translation velocity as a function of latitude, longitude, day of year, and year. We will discuss the characteristics and current problems of the proposed modeling technique.