Japan Geoscience Union Meeting 2015

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International Session (Oral)

Symbol S (Solid Earth Sciences) » S-SS Seismology

[S-SS01] Exploring our limits in understanding earthquakes and improving our knowledge -CSEP Experiment in Japan-

Sun. May 24, 2015 2:15 PM - 4:00 PM 102B (1F)

Convener:*Hiroshi Tsuruoka(Earthquake Research Institute, Tokyo Univ.), Danijel Schorlemmer(GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences), Naoshi Hirata(Earthquake Research Institute, the University of Tokyo), Chair:Hiroshi Tsuruoka(Earthquake Research Institute, Tokyo Univ.), Danijel Schorlemmer(GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences)

3:15 PM - 3:30 PM

★ [SSS01-05] Forecasting seismicity after the Tohoku-Oki earthquake

*Yosihiko OGATA1 (1.The Institute of Statistical Mathematics)

Keywords:Probability forecast, ETAS models, Triggering seismicity, Space-time ETAS model, Magnitude distributions, Earthquake detection rates

It has been four years since the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake of M9.0 occurred. This giant event affects very largely on the current and future seismicity in and around Japan. In this occasion, I would like to discuss on various aspects of the forecasts the future seismicity. Further talk will be made on my planning of deepening statistical models for predicting finer future seismicity.