Development of ensemble tsunami inundation forecasting method using ABIC

Tomohiro Takagawa; Takashi Tomita

Presentation information

Oral

Symbol H (Human Geosciences) » H-DS Disaster geosciences

[H-DS19] Tsunami and Tsunami Forecast

Wed. May 25, 2016 10:45 AM - 12:15 PM 201A (2F)

Convener:*Yuichi Namegaya(Institute of Earthquake and Volcano Geology, Geological Survey of Japan, National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology), Kentaro Imai(Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology), Chair:Daisuke Inazu(UTokyo Ocean Alliance, The University of Tokyo), Tomohiro Takagawa(Port and Airport Research Institute)

11:15 AM - 11:30 AM

[HDS19-09] Development of ensemble tsunami inundation forecasting method using ABIC

*Tomohiro Takagawa¹, Takashi Tomita¹ (1.Port and Airport Research Institute)

Keywords:ensamble forecast, ABIC, Tsunami

An ensemble forecasting method for tsunami inundation is proposed. The method consists of three elemental techniques. The first is a hierarchical Bayesian inversion using Akaike’s Bayesian Information Criterion (ABIC). The second is Montecarlo sampling from probability density function. The third is ensamble analysis of tsunami inundation simulations on multiple tsunami sources with the consideration of source uncertainty. Simulation based validation of the method was conducted. On a case of tsunami generated by a great Nankai trough earthquake, tsunami inundation around Nagoya Port was estimated by using tsunami waveform data of offshore GPS buoys. The error of estimation of tsunami inundation area was about 10% even if we used only ten minutes observation data. The estimation accuracy of waveforms on/off land and spatial distribution of maximum tsunami inundation depth is demonstrated.