[S-SS03] New frontiers in earthquake statistics, physics-based earthquake forecasting, and earthquake model testing

[SSS03-02] Hybrid Models and Time-dependent Hazard in New Zealand

*Matt Gerstenberger¹, David Rhoades, Annemarie Christophersen, David Harte, Bill Fry (1.GNS Science)

Keywords:earthquake forecasting, statistics, seismic hazard

Recent work in earthquake forecasting in New Zealand has been at the interface of earthquake forecasting (or operational earthquake forecasting) and seismic hazard analysis. One of our aims has been to develop models that can transition for short-term forecasting to the time scales that are required by seismic hazard analysis. As part of this we have been developing hybrid forecast models that utilise alternative data sets to the earthquake catalogue. Recent results have shown significant improvements in forecast skill by including by geological information and geodetic strain rain information. Another important challenge has been to develop homogeneous catalogues that allow for consistent forecasting from earthquake rates through to ground-motion prediction equations. We have also been endeavoring to understand the impact of uncertainties (e.g., from the catalogue through to model uncertainty) have on the final forecasts. Finally, we will discuss some of the challenges we are currently facing in testing of earthquake forecast models.