日本地球惑星科学連合2018年大会

講演情報

[EE] Eveningポスター発表

セッション記号 A (大気水圏科学) » A-AS 大気科学・気象学・大気環境

[A-AS03] 最新の大気科学:台風研究の新展開~過去・現在・未来

2018年5月23日(水) 17:15 〜 18:30 ポスター会場 (幕張メッセ国際展示場 7ホール)

コンビーナ:中野 満寿男(海洋研究開発機構)、和田 章義(気象研究所台風研究部)、金田 幸恵(名古屋大学宇宙地球環境研究所、共同)、伊藤 耕介(琉球大学)

[AAS03-P01] Prediction and attribution of quiescent tropical cyclone activity in the western North Pacific in the early summer of 2016

★Invited Papers

*Yuhei Takaya1Yutaro Kubo2Shuhei Maeda2Shoji Hirahara2 (1.Meteorological Research Institute、2.Japan Meteorological Agency)

キーワード:tropical cyclone, seasonal prediction, western North Pacific, indian Ocean

This study investigated the inactive tropical cyclone (TC) condition in the western North Pacific (WNP) during the early summer (May–July) of 2016. We conducted and analyzed seasonal predictions and sensitivity experiments with an atmosphere–ocean coupled prediction system (JMA/MRI-CPS2). The system used in this study successfully predicted the inactive TC condition during the period. We also conducted sensitivity experiment simulations, in which the warmer-than-normal sea surface temperature (SST) in the Indian Ocean (IO) was restored to the climatology. This sensitivity experiment results in a weakened lower-tropospheric anticyclonic anomaly and near-normal TC activity over the WNP. These results indicate that the inactive TC condtion can be attributable to the warm IO SST anomalies induced by the preceding 2015/2016 El Niño. Verification and analysis of reforecasts show that the TC count in early summer is more predictable than other seasons due to a strong influence of IO warming induced by preceding El Niño events, indicating the high seasonal predictability of the TC activity in the early summer.