日本地球惑星科学連合2018年大会

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[EE] Eveningポスター発表

セッション記号 A (大気水圏科学) » A-HW 水文・陸水・地下水学・水環境

[A-HW20] 流域の物質輸送と栄養塩循環-人間活動および気候変動の影響-

2018年5月21日(月) 17:15 〜 18:30 ポスター会場 (幕張メッセ国際展示場 7ホール)

コンビーナ:齋藤 光代(岡山大学大学院環境生命科学研究科)、小野寺 真一(広島大学大学院総合科学研究科)、細野 高啓(熊本大学大学院先導機構、共同)、Adina Paytan(University of California Santa Cruz)

[AHW20-P01] Application of Model for Prediction Across Scales in Drought Index and Reservoir Inflow Estimation

*Yu-Chi Wang1Yi-Chiu Lin1 (1.National Applied Research Laboratories Taiwan Typhoon and Flood Research Institute)

キーワード:seasonal forecast, water resource management, MPAS, reservoir inflow prediction

The topography of Taiwan is precipitous that the river flows is usually short and rapid. Moreover, Taiwan is an area prone to suffer droughts due to uneven temporal distribution of precipitation and small storage capacity of reservoirs, although the total rainfall amount is plentiful, the water resource is difficult to reserve. With the significant impacts of climate change - causing drought and floods to be more frequent in recent years. The seasonal rainfall forecasts with dynamic model outputs become an important issue for water resource management in Taiwan. The new high-resolution global model, “Model for Prediction Across Scales” (MPAS) is used for this study to develop seasonal precipitation prediction. The meteorological and hydrological model are further integrated in this study for drought index and reservoir inflow estimation. The results showed using different combinations of physics schemes in MPAS can build up an ensemble system for seasonal rainfall forecast and reservoir inflow forecast. But there are still uncertainties in MPAS for long-term forecast. However, the ensemble system is able to produce probability forecast of reservoir water level in the future. These information can help the authorities to make decisions in water resources planning and droughts warning.