[ACG52-P05] Droughts, fires and fire emissions of CO2 and PM2.5 in equatorial Asia due to historical and future climate changes
Keywords:Drought, Fire, Paris Agreement, Attribution, El Nino
We combine these experiments and empirical functions among precipitation, burned area, and fire emissions of CO2 and fine (<2.5 micrometers) particulate matter (PM2.5). Increases in the chances of burned areas and the emissions of CO2 and PM2.5 exceeding the 2015 observations due to past anthropogenic climate change are not significant. In contrast, there are significant increases in the burned area and CO2 and PM2.5 emissions even if the 1.5°C and 2.0°C goals are achieved. If global warming reaches 3.0°C, as is expected from the current mitigation policies of nations, the chances of burned area, CO2 and PM2.5 emissions exceeding the 2015 observed values become approximately 100%, at least in the single model ensembles.
We also compare changes in fire CO2 emissions due to climate changes and the land-use CO2 emission scenarios of five shared socioeconomic pathways, where the effects of climate change on fire are not considered. There are two main implications. First, in a national policy context, future EA climate policy will need to consider these climate change effects regarding both mitigation and adaptation aspects. Second, the consideration of fire increases would change global CO2 emissions and the mitigation strategy, which suggests that future climate change mitigation studies should consider these factors.