[AOS17-03] An overview of seasonal to Decadal Predictions with MIROC6
Keywords:decadal prediction, seasonal prediction, climate variation
Skill of seasonal prediction is overall improved in association with representation of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), and the Barents-Kara sea-ice concentration in MIROC6. In particular, the QBO is skillfully predicted up to 3 years ahead with a maximum anomaly correlation exceeding r=0.8. The prediction skill for the North Atlantic Oscillation in winter is also enhanced, but the prediction still suffers from model’s inherent errors. On decadal timescales, MIROC6 has a predictive skill in the annual-mean sea surface temperature (SST) in the North Atlantic and the tropical Pacific. In particular, SST variability in the eastern tropical Pacific is predicted up to 7-10 years with a significantly larger skill score than the uninitialized experiment. MIROC6 hindcasts predict the Pacific regime shifts in the late-1970s and late-1990s better than MIROC5 hindcasts likely because of the improved skill of predicting interannual ENSO variability.