[A-CG35] Projection and detection of global environmental change

Fri. Jun 4, 2021 1:45 PM - 3:15 PM Ch.08 (Zoom Room 08)

convener:Michio Kawamiya(Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology), Kaoru Tachiiri(Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology), Hiroaki Tatebe(Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology), V Ramaswamy(NOAA GFDL), Chairperson:Hiroaki Tatebe(Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology), Michio Kawamiya(Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology)

Anthropogenic forcings on global environment are expected to cause intensification of extreme events, sea level rise, ocean acidification and deoxygenation, as well as large-scale ecosystem changes. Earth System modeling groups across the world performed simulations and published projection data toward 6th IPCC assessment report due in July, 2021. Various new types of studies, such as event attribution and coupling of socio-economic processes and Earth system dynamics, are emerging in the field of global change projections. In addition, analysis on observational data are becoming increasingly more important for assessing credibility of model projections on the global environment. Interactions and collaborations beyond boundaries of conventional scientific disciplines are desired for dealing with the issue of global changes. This session hosts the latest research findings with a view to model prediction, and interdisciplinary collaborations including those with social sciences.

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1:45 PM - 2:00 PM

[ACG35-01] Contrasting historical and future warming in CESM2 versus CESM1

★Invited Papers

*Julie Arblaster¹, Gerald Meehl¹, Marika Holland¹ (1.Monash University, NCAR)

2:00 PM - 2:15 PM

[ACG35-02] Minimal CMIP Emulator (MCE): A new method for probabilistic climate projections

*Junichi Tsutsui¹ (1.Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry)

2:15 PM - 2:30 PM

[ACG35-03] Implication of aspherical coarse dust on aerosol radiative effect

*Akinori Ito¹, Adeyemi A. Adebiyi², Yue Huang², Jasper F. Kok² (1.Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, 2.University of California)

2:30 PM - 2:45 PM

[ACG35-04] Validity of substituting flood and drought characteristics obtained from transient simulations to represent an equilibrium climate

*Julien Eric Boulange¹, Naota Hanasaki¹, Yusuke Satoh¹, Tokuta Yokohata¹, Hideo Shiogama¹, Peter Burek², Thiery Wim³, Gerten Dieter^4,5, Hannes Müller Schmied^6,7, Yoshihide Wada², Simon Gosling⁸, Yadu Pokhrel⁹, Niko Wanders¹⁰ (1.National Institute for Environmental Studies, 2.International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), 3.Vrije Universiteit Brussel, 4.Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 5.Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, 6.Goethe University Frankfurt, 7.Senckenberg Leibniz Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (SBiK-F), 8.University of Nottingham, 9.Michigan State University, 10.Utrecht University)

2:45 PM - 3:00 PM

[ACG35-05] Decomposing the uncertainties in global drought projections

*Yusuke Satoh^1,2, Hideo Shiogama¹, Naota Hanasaki¹, Yadu Pokhrel³, Julien Eric Stanislas Boulange¹, Peter Burek², Simon Newland Gosling⁴, Manolis Grillakis⁵, Aristeidis Koutroulis⁶, Hannes Müller Schmied^7,8, Wim Thiery⁹, Tokuta Yokohata¹ (1.National Institute for Environmental Studies, 2.International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, 3.Michigan State University, 4.University of Nottingham, 5.Institute for Mediterranean Studies, 6.Technical University of Crete, 7.Goethe-University Frankfurt, 8.Senckenberg Leibniz Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre Frankfurt, 9.Vrije Universiteit Brussel)

3:00 PM - 3:15 PM

[ACG35-06] Global exposure to river flooding in the CMIP6 future projections

*Yukiko Hirabayashi¹, Masahiro TANOUE², Orie Sasaki¹, Xudong Zhou³, Dai Yamazaki³ (1.Shibaura Institute of Technology, 2.National Institute for Environmental Studies, 3.Institute of Industrial Science, The University of Tokyo)

Session information