2021年6月5日(土) 17:15 〜 18:30 Ch.13

コンビーナ:鶴岡 弘(東京大学地震研究所)、庄 建倉(統計数理研究所)、Schorlemmer Danijel(GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences)、平田 直(国立研究開発法人防災科学技術研究所)

Probabilistic models have been developed for describing, analyzing, and forecasting seismicity, including recurrence and stress-release models for long-term earthquake hazard assessment, and short-term models describing earthquake clustering, e.g. the ETAS model. Some models have become standard tools in seismic hazard assessment. The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability and its Japan branch has provided the testing capabilities for rigorous and unbiased evaluation of forecasting models. This session invites contributions of model developments based on the increased understanding of the physical process of earthquakes, such as the preparation and rupture processes of the earthquake source and the interaction between earthquakes and tectonic environments. We also welcome development and implementation of improved statistical methods for forecasting seismicity