Sat. Jun 5, 2021 5:15 PM - 6:30 PM Ch.13

convener:Hiroshi Tsuruoka(Earthquake Research Institute, Tokyo Univ.), Jiancang Zhuang(Institute of Statistical Mathematics), Danijel Schorlemmer(GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences), Naoshi Hirata(National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience)

Probabilistic models have been developed for describing, analyzing, and forecasting seismicity, including recurrence and stress-release models for long-term earthquake hazard assessment, and short-term models describing earthquake clustering, e.g. the ETAS model. Some models have become standard tools in seismic hazard assessment. The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability and its Japan branch has provided the testing capabilities for rigorous and unbiased evaluation of forecasting models. This session invites contributions of model developments based on the increased understanding of the physical process of earthquakes, such as the preparation and rupture processes of the earthquake source and the interaction between earthquakes and tectonic environments. We also welcome development and implementation of improved statistical methods for forecasting seismicity