12:00 〜 12:15
[AHW21-12] Effectiveness of crop calendar shift as an adaptation measure for climate change - Case study for rice production in Hokkaido, Japan
キーワード：コメ生産、農事歴、灌漑水需要、気候変動
In this study, effectiveness of the shifting crop calendar as an adaptation measure against climate change is assesssed for the rice production in Hokkaido, Japan. Future climate scenario was produced by dynamical downscalling from 6GCMs using WRF with 9km resolution. Rice growth model SIMRIW, land surface model SiBUC, distributed hydrological model CaMa-Flood were used to evaluate the suitable growing period, irrigation water demand, river discharge etc.
SIMRIW generally showed the higher potential yield under future climate conditon, and the optimal transplant date will be 2 weeks to 1 month earlier by the end of this century. Also, from the point of climate condition, the areas suitable for rice production will extend toward north and east, suggesting that Hokkaido will have higher potential for the rice production in future climate condition.
Irrigation water demand was evaluated by SiBUC considering the deep water irrigation, an additional water demand against cold damage. Even in the future warm climate condition, cold air temperature caused by summer time storms will still remain until 2070's. Also, due to the temperature rise, base irrigation water demand will continue to increase year by year.
River discharge was evaluated by the result of SiBUC and CaMa-Flood. Due to the earlier snowmelt under warmer climate will shift the timing of snowmelt flood in sprinf season. So shifting crop calendar earlier is reasonable from the point of hydrological condition. Deep water irrigation in future condition will tend to provide water stress as the river discharge in July will decrease in future.
SIMRIW generally showed the higher potential yield under future climate conditon, and the optimal transplant date will be 2 weeks to 1 month earlier by the end of this century. Also, from the point of climate condition, the areas suitable for rice production will extend toward north and east, suggesting that Hokkaido will have higher potential for the rice production in future climate condition.
Irrigation water demand was evaluated by SiBUC considering the deep water irrigation, an additional water demand against cold damage. Even in the future warm climate condition, cold air temperature caused by summer time storms will still remain until 2070's. Also, due to the temperature rise, base irrigation water demand will continue to increase year by year.
River discharge was evaluated by the result of SiBUC and CaMa-Flood. Due to the earlier snowmelt under warmer climate will shift the timing of snowmelt flood in sprinf season. So shifting crop calendar earlier is reasonable from the point of hydrological condition. Deep water irrigation in future condition will tend to provide water stress as the river discharge in July will decrease in future.